Current Remarks from John

Dear Reader,

We are currently receiving reports from multiiple economists and market forecasters.  Before I say more understand we can be wrong but our track record for forecasting has been pretty good but in today's politcal climate and market conditions no one is sure of anything.

Here is what we believe as of today:

  • Either we have reached a peak in the markets and will now be headed down or we will have a short pull back and then another run up into the middle of September.  So either the peak has been reached or it will be in September.  In either event the markets will likely be headed downward. 
  • The information we are getting points to the DOW not reaching the bottom of this recession until it reaches between 1800 to as high as 4500.
  • The more government intervention we have in the economy the longer this recession will last.
  • The engine that drives all recoveries from recessions is the expansion of new small business.  The current political climate is doing everything possible to kill small business.
  • Government take over of banks, auto manufacuteres, etc.. creates serious loss of confidence in the stocks and bonds of these industires.  The only areas benefiting from government intervention are unions and new government bureaucracies.  Want to buy stock in the Post Office?
  • If we are to err we wish to err on the side of caution.  This is what we are recommending for the majority of our clients:  We are suggesting for all of our clients retired or near retirement to get out of the stock market at this time.   We are moving assets to what we believe are safe places to ride out this storm.
  • We beleive that with all the government spending and reckless printing of currency inflation and higher interest rates are inevitable.  Fixed accounts and money markets may be the best places to make money in the next several years to come.  Once interest rates level off corporate bonds will likely be a good place to be.  When interest rates begin to decline, and we are convinced the marikets have reached their bottom,  dollar cost averaging back into the stock market will a good strategy.  We may see a replay of the Jimmy Carter era. 
  • If you have any questions as to what to do send us an email via the contact area of this website.